Note: I only make two picks per week. You have 2/3 odds of finishing even or better.
Lines as of 10:30 PM ET 10/05/2019
- New England Patriots (A) (-15.5) over Washington Redskins (H)
In the first three weeks of the season the Patriots would have covered this spread. They failed to cover last week against Buffalo, but the Bills are a better team than the Redskins especially on the defensive side of the ball right now. The Redskins defense ranks 29th in points allowed (Buffalo ranks 6th) and 30th in passing touchdowns allowed (Buffalo ranks 2nd). Meanwhile the Patriots have the least passing touchdowns against them this season and Washington is a mess at quarterback with Colt McCoy being named as the starter. I expect this to resemble the Patriots 43-0 blowout of the Miami Dolphins in Week 2 more so than last week’s win against the Buffalo Bills.
- Kansas City Chiefs (H) (-11) over Indianapolis Colts (A)
Honestly? There are two teams I trust in the NFL right now. The Patriots and the Chiefs. It’s a short list. The Colts are banged up right now with a lot of key pieces on both side of the ball either out or questionable. The Colts defensive weakness is in passing touchdowns allowed (26th). The Chiefs at home should be looking to light it up after a disappointing performance last week. With Darius Leonard, Clayton Geathers, Malik Hooker and Tyquan Lewis all out, Patrick Mahomes should be able to pick apart a depleted defensive unit.