Note: I only make two picks per week. You have 2/3 odds of finishing even or better.
- Kansas City Chiefs (A) (-6.5) over Detroit Lions (H)
The Chiefs are 3-0 against the spread so far this season. This game should be a track meet on the turf in Ford Field. The Detroit Lions defense is 23rd in total yards against in the first three games while only ten teams in the NFL have had more offensive drives end in a score against them. Meanwhile, the Chiefs offense is 2nd in total yards and have had the 2nd most offensive drives end in a score in the entire league. The Chiefs rank 1st in both passing yards and passing touchdowns and the Detroit Lions cornerback Darius Slay may miss the game outright and will be playing hurt at best. Patrick Mahomes is the real deal and is doubling down on last year’s performance. I don’t think Matthew Stafford can keep up. Not to mention the Lions have allowed the 10th most rushing yards per attempt which is going to allow the Chiefs running game to really get going.
- New England Patriots (A) (-7) over Buffalo Bills (H)
In the only meeting Josh Allen has had against New England he threw two interceptions and only 5.3 yards per pass. To be fair, Tom Brady did not perform much better in the two games he had against the Buffalo Bills last season. Brady had one touchdown total in the two games combined. The thing is that the Patriots still won in Week 8 (25 -6) and in Week 16 (24-12). Last week the Bills almost got beat by a win-less Bengals team while the Patriots have outscored their opponents by an average of just under 30 points per week through the first three weeks. The Patriots offense has finished their drives with a score at the fourth best percentage this season and the Bills offense ranks 26th in passing touchdowns. Julian Edelman may play, but even if not, the Patriots have a strong offensive arsenal between their running backs and receiving core.