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The Sports Crazy’s Week 3 NFL Picks

Note: I only make two picks per week

Dallas Cowboys (H) (-21.5) over Miami Dolphins (A)

New England Patriots (H) (-20.5) over New York Jets (A)

I’m linking both bets this week for a reason.  Listen, if either team can win the game either way OUTRIGHT then why would you bet that game with a spread?  You need to minimize your risk by only betting games where one team should win eight or nine times out of ten then look at the point spread.  There aren’t that many games like this in Week 3 outside of these two.  I would say it is most likely that at least one of these two games cover the spread this week given the talent difference between these teams.  Let’s not get cute and try to figure out which one then place the second bet on Packers over Broncos for example.  Let’s take both and look at it like there are three possible outcomes (both covers, neither cover or split) so two-thirds of the possible outcomes result in a worst case of splitting the week and living another week without losing any money.  I would be putting big money on these two evenly split on each game and hope both come through, but most likely knowing that at least one of the two will.

Not only do the Cowboys look tremendous on offense and defense so far this season, the Dolphins are tanking in a way we have not seen before in NFL history.  Most of their players just don’t want to get injured and Josh Rosen trying to jumpstart the offense, but Robert Quinn is back on the Dallas D this week joining DeMarcus Lawrence and Jaylon Smith who should tear apart the Dolphins O-Line.  The Dolphins also are going to have their hands full trying to stop Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott who are going to run up and down the field on Miami.

The Jets only real threat on offense is Le’Veon Bell and believe me, Bill Belichick knows that.  The Patriots are going to scheme in a way that forces Luke Falk to beat them which won’t happen.  Any concern over the Antonio Brown fiasco affecting New England should be dismissed as Brown was only there for ten days and probably wasn’t able to have any impacting result on the team.  The Patriots, especially against a division rival, will want to prove a point if anything and should be able to cover this large spread in the process.

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